While the Fed and Russia-oriented sentiment continues to be influential in the markets, the statements from the US claiming that Russia is not in a meaningful retreat are still presenting calls that keep the crisis phenomenon alive in the inactive world. On the point of whether there is a significant effect, there is nothing new as Brent oil is hovering at $94 and “Russia did not invade Ukraine on February 16”. It seems that the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine will continue to be in the game for a few days. The real crisis phenomenon, on the other hand, is likely to be on the basis of reality rather than expectation.
At the point of turning this job into a chaotic scenario, the steps are as follows: Russia’s military buildup turns into a military operation, Russia pulls out of SWIFT by West, Russia separates many countries from the financial system with its own payment system, and gas flow to Europe is cut off. We still have not overcome the crisis, but the current inaction remaining on the diplomacy leg will bring a situation that is taken for granted as long as the game is not deployed on the opponent’s field. Ukraine is a transit country rather than a natural resource country. If the energy flows towards Europe at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter whether it passes through Ukraine or not. At the same time, Ukraine is not a NATO member and it is not a scenario that is on the agenda. The main matter is not actually Ukraine. Russia does not want NATO, which was established to protect Europe from the threat of Soviet Russia and the Eastern Bloc, to expand to the east, towards countries that still have their own backyards and which they think they have a say in, and considers this a security problem.
Plus, a possible sharp commodity price rise will make it very difficult to implement economic policy in Western countries, and while monetary policy will be tightened against inflation, it will damage the growth dynamics. Stability is the desire of all parties right now. Strategic interests lie in the fact that the US keeps the crisis phenomenon alive. After all, NATO means the US, if we consider the post-World War II military drive over Europe. Germany, which is uncomfortable with that military presence and needs energy resources to keep production alive in its country, chooses to watch from the outside and remain moderate. We are in a period where there is not much compensation for mistakes in economy and politics, and we are at the edge of the crisis
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
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